Post by account_disabled on Feb 27, 2024 0:11:28 GMT -5
Having raised its benchmark deposit rate from -0.5 percent last summer to 3.75 percent while facing the biggest rise in inflation in a generation, the ECB now appears to be approaching the peak of its adjustment of policies. Investor doubts over whether the central bank will raise interest rates for the 10th consecutive time have intensified amid widespread signs of an impending economic slowdown, including weaker business confidence and a drop in German industrial production. The ECB will also publish new quarterly forecasts after its meeting on Thursday, which most economists expect will include a weaker growth outlook and a slight increase in its inflation expectations for this year and next.
Forward-looking growth data has been identified as disappointing lately, we expect this to be enough to justify remaining on hold next week,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Derivatives Jordan Mobile Number List markets are pricing in a chance of around 35 percent that the ECB will raise its deposit rate to 4 percent on September 14. However, with eurozone inflation of 5.3 percent in August still well above the ECB's 2 percent target, there are many economists who believe another rate hike is still possible, and almost certainly final. . "It is a very close call, but inflation remains too high, the focus on actual events rather than forecasts and the fear of stopping prematurely will tip the balance towards a final rate hike," said global head Carsten Brzeski. macroeconomic research.
Inflation is expected to have risen in August, although core inflation slowed, which could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high longer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest inflation data on Wednesday, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a year-over-year rate of 3.6 percent. That would mark an increase in the overall figure from 3.2 percent in July, and the highest level since May. The acceleration is expected to be partly due to higher energy prices, Barclays analysts say, and core inflation - which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors - is expected to have slowed to 4.3 percent. in August, from 4.7 percent in July. The base monthly rate is expected to remain stable at 0.2 percent.
Forward-looking growth data has been identified as disappointing lately, we expect this to be enough to justify remaining on hold next week,” said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Derivatives Jordan Mobile Number List markets are pricing in a chance of around 35 percent that the ECB will raise its deposit rate to 4 percent on September 14. However, with eurozone inflation of 5.3 percent in August still well above the ECB's 2 percent target, there are many economists who believe another rate hike is still possible, and almost certainly final. . "It is a very close call, but inflation remains too high, the focus on actual events rather than forecasts and the fear of stopping prematurely will tip the balance towards a final rate hike," said global head Carsten Brzeski. macroeconomic research.
Inflation is expected to have risen in August, although core inflation slowed, which could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high longer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest inflation data on Wednesday, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a year-over-year rate of 3.6 percent. That would mark an increase in the overall figure from 3.2 percent in July, and the highest level since May. The acceleration is expected to be partly due to higher energy prices, Barclays analysts say, and core inflation - which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors - is expected to have slowed to 4.3 percent. in August, from 4.7 percent in July. The base monthly rate is expected to remain stable at 0.2 percent.